Probabilistic analysis of climate change impact on fungal decay of timber elements in ground contact and their long-term structural performance

Climate change can substantially affect infrastructure performance and safety. In this article, the impact of climate on fungal decay wooden in ground contact is investigated. For purpose, projections three different scenarios are used to assess rate untreated clear wood elements Sweden. The highest increase average observed for four counties located mid-Sweden, i.e. Örebro, Värmland, Västmanland, Gävleborg. Furthermore, two illustrative examples presented demonstrate increased rates structural long-term reliability timber selected counties, Skåne (southernmost Sweden), Västmanland. first example, bending moment capacity utility poles assessed while second axially loaded columns studied it found that have considerable impacts contact.